NAR Expects US Will Avoid Recession; Home Sales to Rise 13.5% in 2024
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun forecasts that 4.71 million existing homes will be sold, the housing market is expected to grow, and Austin, TX will be the top real estate market to watch in 2024 and beyond. Yun unveiled the association's forecast during NAR's fifth annual year-end Real Estate Forecast Summit: The Year Ahead held earlier this week.
Yun predicts home sales will begin to rise next year—by 13.5% compared to 2023 and the median home price will reach $389,500—an increase of 0.9% from this year. Yun expects rent prices to calm down further in 2024, which will hold down the consumer price index. He predicts foreclosure rates will stay at historically low levels in 2024, comprising less than 1% of all mortgages.
Yun forecasts that U.S. GDP will grow by 1.5%, avoiding a recession, with net new job additions slowing to 1.7 million in 2024, compared to 2.7 million in 2023 and 4.8 million in 2022. After eclipsing 8% in late 2023, he expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.3% and that the Fed will cut rates four times—calming inflationary conditions—in response to slower economic activity