Timing is everything when it comes to the federal funds rate. Economists are increasingly confident that the first rate cut since 2020 could happen as flowers are blooming in the late spring and early summer. This aligns with what Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Chief Economist Michael Fratantoni suggested during October Research’s 2024 Economic Forecast webinar in January.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell revealed he believes the financial markets are “in the right place” for a cut in the coming months while testifying before the Senate Banking Committee on March 7.

“We are waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down to 2 percent,” Powell said. “When we do get that confidence, and we’re not far from it, it will be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restriction so that we don’t drive the economy into recession.”